Hard to be a bear right now

With the strength of banks, it is hard to have a bear case.

Update: LEN

LEN still climbs.

CSCO-the party breaker?

Panic button

I am concerned by the speculation on the small cap stocks and I also think the uptrend from March is due for a break. I used the "panic button" today and closed most of my long positions. I will watch from the sideline for the rest of the week.

Lesson from Sol at Xtrend

Among the investing bloggers I regularly visit, I have a lot of respect towards Xtrend gang. The main reason is they correctly predicted last year's crash and made lots of profit from it. Trader Sol grew his account from 350k to 4 million at the end of last year. Today he announced he blew it off.

How can a good trader like him lose it all? I conclude 3 reasons from my observation of his trading this year.

1. Fighting the trend. He has been shorting this market all the way up from March.
2. Picking the turn. He has been trying to pick the top from March.
3. Being stubborn instead of flexible. Though we are in a long term bear market, the inter medium is clearly up after March 23rd. Being a trader, recognize it and go with it.

And best luck to Sol, hope he learned his lesson and recover himself from it. He can be much stronger.

Banks still lagging

Even with recent strength, the bank index is still lagging on the weekly chart by looking at the the down sloped 30 week moving average.

Dow Jones weekly

Dow Jones is at some sort of resistance too.

NASDAQ at resistance

I think we should start closing long positions. It is clearly at a strong resistance. If this is a bear market rally, which I think it is, the downward trend line is too heavy to break through.

Update: HOV

It reached my target today, with 35% profit.

My jump seat

Remember the "panic button" I was talking about? If tomorrow's GDP number disappoints, I am probably going to employ that technique.

The only bright spot

The bright spot is the bank index that continues its uptrend. As long as it rallies, my 10% upside target is achievable.

A shooting star

A shooting star is a bearish candlestick formation, which means the buyers exhaust. Tomorrow is the key; a down day says the uptrend is over and we might probably have seen the high of the year.

Shanghai A share is down 5%

Shanghai A share is down 5% after over 80% rally this year. Does it predict our little bull market near the end? Anyway, I am less confident than 8 hours ago.

Update: LEN

So is LEN, now up 9%.

Update: HOV

HOV still on the run, 20% in the pocket so far.

Final stage?

Look at the slope, I think we are at the middle of final blow off.

NASDAQ weekly

Lots of resistance upside, my target zone is 2050-2150.

LEN

LEN was added.

Filling the gap

The NASDAQ is about to fill the gap. A place to sell? I am not sure, since I can't think of a material reason to stop the bull.

SNDA

SNDA is breaking out now.