Thursday, August 30, 2007


I got shaken out of JASO two days ago, now I am back into it.

Leaders, what I said?

Remember what I said in July? Look at them, all near or at the high. I remain bullish on them, RIMM, AMZN, BIDU, and AAPL.

Update: DRYS

I added back DRYS after shaken out the day before yesterday.


PHRM has been featured in my newsletter for days.


I added AAPL last night.

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Update: ISRG

Luckily this one was not stopped out, now $15 away from my buy pt.

Monday, August 27, 2007

Update: DRYS

Now $7 in 3 days!


NVDA has been featured in my newsletter for days.

Friday, August 24, 2007

Update: WYNN

Now $6 above my buy pt.


DRYS was added yesterday around $60.

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Pocket some gains

I am taking some profit off the table since we are still in a downtrend.


ISRG was added to my newsletter last night.


AMZN was added to my newsletter yesterday.

Update: GRMN

I would sell at least half of GRMN around 103-104.


WYNN was added the day before yesterday as well.


GRMN was added to my newsletter the day before yesterday.

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Quotes I highlight from "Way Of The Turtle"

"The Turtle Way views losses in the same manner: They are the cost of doing business rather than an indication of a trading error or a bad decision."
"Good traders don't try to predict what the market will do; instead they look at the indicaitons of what the market is doing."
"As a trader you are seeking out opportunities that arise from these human emotions, BEHAVIORAL FINANCE identified the ways that human emotion affexts one's decision-making process."
"Don't miss a trend or you might kill your whole year."
"Over the years I kept finding evidence that emotional and psychological strength are the most improtant ingredients in successful trading."

More to come along with my reading.

I agree TOTALLY when I read this on 16th

I copy the following from The Real, since it is a paid website. Don't laugh, I felt the same way. The speaker is Norm Conley and this small piece is certainly worth of my whole year's subscription.

"I'm theoretically on vacation but given market events I've been working for most of the week at an undisclosed location (i.e. Northern Wisconsin).

First of all, let me say that I did not foresee the depth or sharpness of this correction. Didn't see it! Kudos to those who did, namely Doug Kass.

That said, today's activity smells like capitulation to me. I could be wrong, of course, but the broad-based, high-volume, indiscriminate selling of stocks across 9 of 10 GICS sectors (Financials being the notable exception) is telling to me.

Other tells include the massive intraday swings (% and points) in a lot of widely-owned stocks, as well as the ease with which truly cataclysmic historic market events are discussed as a very real possibility. Markets put in bottoms when the worst-case scenarios seem not only feasible but likely. We are at or near one of those points right now. Also, anecdotally, the level of emotion on this site reminds me of the fall of 2002 and spring of 2003. The stress levels run high, emotions get frayed on both the bull and bear side of the equation, egos get bruised, etc. As always, I think it is better to focus on the ideas than the people putting the ideas forth. Everyone on this site has, at one time or another, been wrong. The discussion is the valuable thing, not the conflict.

I do not think that we are entering a 1931 or a 1987 market situation. This feels more like 1998 to me. A quick check of our site archives for the month of August 1998 (what a great feature) will show you what I mean.

Again, I could be wrong, but I look at this as a correction not a cataclysm. Despite lots of sound and fury to the contrary, stocks are not dramatically expensive and by many measures are cheap. The S&P 500 is trading at 14x earnings. Treasury yields are low. The economy is not in full-blown collapse and corporate CEO's just reported a strong quarter for earnings. Corporate balance sheets are strong. And, if there was any concern about complacency in the investor base, I think that stock investors are a long, long way from complacent right now.

I'm a fan of market history, because I believe that history doesn't repeat but it rhymes. My data tell me that it is highly unlikely that the market will be down significantly from here over the next two months. Again, I could be wrong, but that's what I think.

My studies of market history also make me very very suspicious of large macro predictions. The reason is that while some very smart people are able to predict the course of macro events, even they are often wrong when it comes to predicting the follow-on or derivative events. A quick example of this... In 1989, a few very intelligent prognosticators (including Jim Rogers and Felix Zulauf) predicted the demise of the Japanese economy and the Nikkei. They were a bit early but they were absolutely correct in their prediction. However, their derivative prediction was that the U.S. stock market would enter a long and terrible bear market. It made sense... How could a super economy like Japan implode without bringing the U.S. down with it? But even though it made sense, it didn't happen. You might remember that U.S. stock investors did okay during the 1990's.

I trimmed our portfolio today to raise a bit of cash - roughly 12% - to get ready to redeploy into some of our favorite names - some new, some oldie but goodies. I'm not betting on the Fed or anyone else, I'm betting on a basket of growth stocks that I think will recover from this drubbing the fastest. Good luck to everyone... Whether you are bull or a bear, these kinds of environments can cause one to make a variety of really meaningful mistakes. Be careful."

The book I am reading now

I have not finished it and I already love it. I will post more thoughts on it later.

Thursday, August 16, 2007


I recommended it last night.


Shorted GOOG two days ago.

Update: ICE

I would close position here for $22 profit in 3 days.

Tuesday, August 14, 2007


I added ICE as a short last night.

Monday, August 13, 2007

Update: GS and BSC

I sold GS and BSC after the open. Still holding CME.

Friday, August 10, 2007

Update: Banks again

Remember what I commented last time on the Banks? I hope you took the quick profit as I did. Now I am buying back BSC and GS, also some CME, which is so close to the high.

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Update: JNPR

JNPR has been on an uptrend nicely. My buy pt was 10% lower.


DRYS was added to my newsletter last night.

Update: LDSH

I would close the position right here for $7 or 14% gain.

Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Update: GS

I am selling GS I picked up yesterday for a quick $12.

Update: Banks

The Bank sector touched the support and bounced, I would not be too bullish. Taking quick profit is a key to survive in this market.


I added it last night, I will not hesistate taking quick profit in this market.

Monday, August 6, 2007


I am taking some profit on BSC for a quick $6 gain.

This is not the end of world!

I think selling long at this moment is not a smart move. Panic will never make you money. Bear stern crisis will not drag us to a bear market. Here I said it.


I think the Banks are due for some bounces, at least short term. Call me crazy, I am buying some BSC, GS here.

Saturday, August 4, 2007

Friday, August 3, 2007

More good escapes


AMAT has been in an steady uptrend, just disregarding the weak general market.

Betting on YGE

YGE's shares trading at Shanghai A shares has been halted since July 31. That is the announcement in Chinese, stating it is in talk with China Weapon Equipment department for investment and collaborations. Though I am a technical trader most of times, this time I am buying YGE based on the news. I am betting on time lagging, I am betting on the lack of information. I may be wrong, because frankly its chart does not look great right now and the solar sector has been hit hard since the FSLR's earning. I would have avoided YGE if technically. I am trading this with Chinese flavor:)


I added it to my newsletter couple of days ago.