Some are still lagging and waiting for the breakout, such as the Homebuilders, the Semiconductors and the Banks. Some already broke out, such as the Transportations and the Oils.Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Sector rotation 2
Some are still lagging and waiting for the breakout, such as the Homebuilders, the Semiconductors and the Banks. Some already broke out, such as the Transportations and the Oils.
Sector rotation
Monday, October 11, 2010
VIX at the low
What is climbing wall of worry? I think right now we are climbing wall of worry. Today every financial websites or blogs mentioned VIX hitting the low. They are all worried about coming crash and they all think this rally is not sustainable. As a market observer, I don't know how long this rally can carry on, I just think it may have a little bit further to go, further than most market participants think.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Are investors really bullish?
This is a poll I copied from Bespoke.com, you can see the bear and the bull is about even, which surprised me.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Some bearish reasons
I borrowed two charts from Tim Knight's blog, one chart showing the interest rate along with S&P, the other shows Kol with SPY. Both say the rally may run its course, the picture won't be pretty. I am not a bear, but today's selloff in the momentum stocks make me think twice. If the highflyers are dead, how higher can the market go?
Momentum stocks got slaughtered
On the surface, today is a quiet day. But underneath, the recent highflyers got sold very hard. The investors rush to exit as the earning season is about to kick off. One thing I think it is good is that now the bubble being squeezed and they may have some upside when they report. On the other hand, I don't like the magnitude of this decline, usually signaling a very important top. In conclusion, short term trade is OK, but I don't expect they will resume their recent monster move.
Why are online payday loans becoming more popular?
It is no surprise that in economically distressing times, hardworking Americans need to be resourceful at managing their bill paying. So the rise of payday loans in general makes sense. For example, if one member of a household is not working, his or her partner or spouse may still be employed. And yet, when an unexpected expense arises – such as something with their children, a broken appliance, a car repair or medical emergency – the need for quick cash can easily come up. They may not have a credit card or savings account, so the best source of funding might just be to get a paycheck advance.
But payday loans have been available in many forms for decades. Money exchanges or other types of retail stores have long offered people a way to get cash in advance of a paycheck. But to do so required traveling to the store, waiting in a line quite often, then transacting the loan through a thick glass window. It lacked privacy, the borrower may have been pressured to sign documents on the spot while people were waiting behind him, and it was hugely inconvenient to shop around for the best loan terms (in addition to interest rate charge differences, different lenders have different payback options, penalties and other fees).
Hence, the online payday loans stores have risen to provide a more convenient, safer and less time-consuming way to get instant cash. Where the retail stores often required faxing documents after you visited their locations, today’s Internet-based lenders offer faxless payday loans. And the process is quick: Signing on, filling out an application and getting a confirmation will engage the borrower for about fifteen minutes, sometimes less. Confirmation comes within an hour by e-mail, and the cash is direct-deposited by electronic funds transfers by the next business day. Users of online lenders for cash advances are like early adopters of ATMs – their parents and grandparents may have liked talking to tellers, but the convenience of electronic methods ultimately wins out.
But payday loans have been available in many forms for decades. Money exchanges or other types of retail stores have long offered people a way to get cash in advance of a paycheck. But to do so required traveling to the store, waiting in a line quite often, then transacting the loan through a thick glass window. It lacked privacy, the borrower may have been pressured to sign documents on the spot while people were waiting behind him, and it was hugely inconvenient to shop around for the best loan terms (in addition to interest rate charge differences, different lenders have different payback options, penalties and other fees).
Hence, the online payday loans stores have risen to provide a more convenient, safer and less time-consuming way to get instant cash. Where the retail stores often required faxing documents after you visited their locations, today’s Internet-based lenders offer faxless payday loans. And the process is quick: Signing on, filling out an application and getting a confirmation will engage the borrower for about fifteen minutes, sometimes less. Confirmation comes within an hour by e-mail, and the cash is direct-deposited by electronic funds transfers by the next business day. Users of online lenders for cash advances are like early adopters of ATMs – their parents and grandparents may have liked talking to tellers, but the convenience of electronic methods ultimately wins out.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Bank is about to break out!
Big news! The bank index is about to break out that is very positive to the market!
Strong volume
Please notice the circle I highlighted on the volume, all more than 20 day average volume. A bullish sign.
Friday, October 1, 2010
Fireworks coming?
The semiconductor sector is resting under the resistance, I think it is going to break out soon.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
What a bull market!
The market shrugged off the bad economic number and closed at high. No matter how the bears translate or predict it, this is bullish. I know the sentiment is getting more bullish everyday, but it is normal since we are in an up trend and more and more people realize it. I still see some small investors try to pick the top, though less than the last week, that tells me the sentiment is not at extreme yet.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
NDX quickly approaching the resistance
NDX has led this rally, now it will be the first to challenge the April high.
More sectors turning up
The retail and the biotech have been the leading sectors and they continue to be. Now the transport and the homebuilder sector are about to break up.
Weekly summery
I had been in sync with market until Friday, when the bulls came back with vengeance. Earlier this week I turned less bullish after less stocks came up to my scan and both the bank and the semiconductor indexes underperformed. I thought we were due for some sort of pullback and I bought a large short position of SMH to hedge my longs. Fortunately the short position was stopped out with a little loss Thursday, but my long positions are under invested at the start of today. I quickly added some exposures as the market opened, though at the end of day I am still not fully margined. Here are some thoughts for the next week.
Positives:
1. The market has been strong and the individual stocks have performed very well, just like a bull market.
2. More sectors are turning up and about to break up.
3. The semiconductor sector comes back ! Usually a good sign!
Neutrals:
1. The market and the stocks have come up quickly without any pause. Now some of them are near the heavy resistance.
2. The sentiment has moved to more bullish side, thought it may need more extreme bullish sentiment to reverse the trend.
Negatives:
1. The bank has not participated in this rally.
That is all the negative factors I can come up with. I didn't count the fundamental factors that takes much longer time to have effect.
Positives:
1. The market has been strong and the individual stocks have performed very well, just like a bull market.
2. More sectors are turning up and about to break up.
3. The semiconductor sector comes back ! Usually a good sign!
Neutrals:
1. The market and the stocks have come up quickly without any pause. Now some of them are near the heavy resistance.
2. The sentiment has moved to more bullish side, thought it may need more extreme bullish sentiment to reverse the trend.
Negatives:
1. The bank has not participated in this rally.
That is all the negative factors I can come up with. I didn't count the fundamental factors that takes much longer time to have effect.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
The old problems still here
The semiconductor is clearly stalled at the resistance and the bank faces the danger of a failed breakout, both a warning sign to the bulls.
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