Closing CNX

Book 15.6% profit!

Update: SOHU

Selling SOHU here for over 11%.

CNX

CNX was a good buy too.

Update: BX

Selling some BX here, final target is $ 14 area.

SOHU

SOHU was a good buy. BTW, it has the earning report next week.

BX

BX triggered the buy pt today.

Update: V

Selling V here.

China negative divergence

China's stock market stalls at the previous breakdown pt, now it is showing the negative divergence that is not a good sign for the global markets.

A bullish possibility

This is a weekly chart of the NASDAQ. Look at the similarity between fall 02 and now (shaded area). If President Obama truly successful saving the economy, the market would walk this path.

Some bearish weekly charts

Even though we are bullish on daily charts, definitely bearish on weekly territory.

Revisit EJ

Got back in yesterday.

Retail is the one

Retail is the leading sector. A rest near the resistance or a topping process? Time will tell.

Fake breakdown?

A fake breakdown? If that is the case, bears are going to have a tough summer.

Fake breakout?

The semiconductor index broke out and now pulls back into the trading range. Pity. Maybe TXN's earning tonight will save the bulls.

Oil leads the way down

Oil index breaks down nicely.

If one sector I want to short

Would be the oil sector. Giving it more time, it should start to lead the way down that is also coincides the weak economy.

Update: VMW

Closed VMW for 8.5% profit.

MKTX

It was added to my newsletter last week.

Update: PFCB

Just close PFCB as well for 12.5% profit.

Update: EJ

Closing EJ at $10.5 for 16.6% profit.

Update: VMW

Approaching my target quickly.

Update: VRTX

No wonder my VRTX keeps plunging.

The first sector got sell signal

Interestingly the biotech is the first sector that got sell signal.

Too early to short

The uptrend is still intact, but you gotta tighten your stops.

Earning seasons in a bear market

We are overbought and entering the earning season, which translate to a much needed, possible rest. I am not calling a top, just a cautious call to avoid heavy long positions right now. I remember vividly during the 2000-2002 bear market, right before the earning times the market were under the resistance and looked rosy, I jumped in and got killed. So do not repeat my mistakes.

More about trading

When you are in a wrong position searching for the turning pt, you are so pathetic. Do not ever let you become that!

Chartpattern and indicator

Chartpatterns are for immediate actions, indicators lag behind.

Rally

Even though I am still bearish long term, which was strenghened by my trip back to the States last week, I think we will see some multiweeks' rally that had already started. The target? Probably 1800 level.

VRTX

VRTX triggered my short pt.

VMW

VMW triggered my buy pt too.

GS

When GS is breaking out the uptrend channel, the bears have hard time to press the shorts. To me, GS is the ultimate tell of the market.

SHLD

SHLD triggered my buy pt today.

NASDAQ

No matter how I want to be bearish, this chart is bullish.

Oil

I am about to give up my bearish stance on oil if it can rally to 920 area.

Another Chinese stock leader

It broke out yesterday. Top is its weekly chart, bullish.

Update: CREE

Taking profit on CREE today.

This is a big news for any financial bloggers!!!

Tim Knight is going to partner with Abby Joseph Cohen, the godess from Goldman Sachs, to form a hedge fund!!!!

Oops, it is April fool's day. He totally got me!

Some China leaders

All weekly charts, all approaching the highs.

SPY

Today's bar looks like the bar on Jan 7th, which was also a gap down and has not been filled yet.

NASDAQ gap

Even though it is still above the moving average, the gap down this morning may well singal the end of rally.

I don't understand it

This morning's economic report showed an increase of personal spending and a decrease of personal income. And all the talking heads are saying it is a good thing as people started spending again. I don't get it. We got into this mess because of generations of over spending, now the government encourages us to spend more to save the economy? It does not make senses at all. I think this time we have a shortage of supply side of the equation instead of demand side.

But what do I know? I am not even an economist!

China market is stalling

China stock market is stalling too at the previous high. Notice the negative divergence.

Explaination

I know I sound contradictory to my yesterday's comment, but I don't like the bulls have tried 1550 area 3 times and fail. The odds are high we could have some near term weakness, maybe shallow, maybe deep, which I really don't know. They all say upside is limited. Even if I am wrong and the market charges higher tomorrow, my stop is close and I won't lose much.

In and out

It looks like the rally is stalling. I am scaling out of my longs and short some more. I am not sure how deep we will decline from here, anyhow the upside might be limited.

Break out!

The NASDAQ clearly broke out yesterday. The near term direction is up!

Report from LA

All I want to say is "not a good picture". Never saw so many vacant business spaces in my life in the States. Comparing to this, the Dot Com Burst was nothing, which did not affect the real businesses at all. Starbucks closed two stores which had been in that area for ages and I went a lot. Restaurant business was down as much as 70%, according to the waitress at my favorite Japanese shabu shabu place. But the South Coast Plaza is still packed in the weekends.

Biotech stalled at resistance too

SOX failing?

It controls the fate of the NASDAQ.

Banks

The resistance ahead, the bottom fishers should not be greedy.

SOX

I thought the semiconductor index could lead the NASDAQ lower, but instead it is breaking up today. A bullish sign.

At resistance

Some of recent China plays are stalled at resistance on the weekly chart.

Bullish reversal

The reversal is strong, bottom seems in.

What drove this rally?

1. stretched bearishness, I am one of them.

2. Big banks' CEOs announced they did well in the first two months. Since the earning season starts today, let's see how good they did and whether the number can justify the recent rally. Don't just talk, show me the money!

GOOG

Shorting GOOG.

The rally is stalled for now

The double resistance is working. Hope you saw my Sunday's post and took some profit off the table. The rally was nice, but it is still too early to call a bottom.

Common sense

Even though we just experienced a fierce bear market rally, I still remain bearish on the economy and the stock market in the longer term. I don't have a fancy theory to claim I must be correct, my reason is just a common sense.

We just experienced a fatal destruction of our economy in less than six months, our banking system is almost gone, our banks almost went under, all of above make me hard to believe the worst would be over so soon and a new bull market is coming as lots of investors hope.

Imagine if a top athlete just recovers from a cancer, will he immediately be able to go back to gym and fight ground right away? The recovery will take much longer.

There is a possibility that we have seen the worst part in the stock market, but don't count on it and celebrate it too early. We still have a lower low on S&P and Dow Jones.

Take some profit off the table and wait to see where it wants to go next.