GOOG

I added to my newsletter last week, the short signal is triggered today.

CME

I picked up some CME short yesterday.

Why?

We are down over 300 pts on the Dow. Call me bullish biased or whatever you like, how come GS, MER, MS, BAC, JPM, V, MA are holding so damn well. Aren't they the first ones to get sold? I am just wondering.

More thoughts

My last long recommendation was stopped out on Sep 8th that is 490 pts above, my members stayed all cash till present. Why subscribe? To save you from crash! Investor could have easily lost thousands of dollars last month. For people who is too stupid to understand this, I say keep $56, you know how much you lost last month.

Some thoughts

People are still dreaming to make money short term, in this environment? Go for it, there is a better way to throw money. I am not smart enough to make you money, right now I can only help you not lose or lose less.

What now?

Even if this is the ultimate bottom which I believe it is, we are still in a BEAR market that might go on for longer than I previously thought. So cash is still the king.

What did I say?

I hope you listened to me on Friday. Too bad, if you did not.

Origin of the sin

Remember what I said if the bailout plan did not get passed? We crashed to 1600 in a hurry. That is why I said I want the socialism that would avoid the final crash in which some investor might have to sell the losing positions due to margin call or being scared. This is totally government's fault!

22 more days

Did some calculation: if we continue dropping like right now, in 22 trading days, Dow Jones goes to zero. Possible? I am not saying you should pick the bottom here, at least not a good place to sell your positions.

Cut?

Interest rate cut? The market is forcing the Fed to take action!

I want socialism!!!!

I can't believe 13 fucking stupid people destroyed the world's financial system that could be saved today. They should be killed for their stupidity. Why need a vote???? Just pass the bill like the Chinese government!

Financials

I think the bailout plan will be passed in the end. Why? Since the financial stocks are holding well. JPM, BAC, CME are all in green.

NASDAQ weekly chart

The bailout plan has to be approved, otherwise we could see a quick 300 pts decline easily.

It was so depressed and so exciting in one week

Last week will be memorized, 2008 will be memorized.

Finally it is over

The low is in, the crisis is over, TSI is crossing up, we are going higher.

Panic in the air!

I am sensing panic in the air.

Nice close, but

From the NASDAQ weekly chart, it seems the decline just started, though we closed nicely today, which does not change the bigger picture.

Disappointed

Today's action is bad, bad, bad.

Bulls are relieved

This bounce comes right in time. But don't get excited yet, we are not out of woods yet. Just a first step.

China

Positive divergence. If the bottom is in, a perfect double bottom. And I believe this is the bottom. After the Olympic, the market will start rallying.

Oil is shaky

A bullish chart can become bearish quickly. Remember I was bullish on oil in June and bearish on US dollar. Now the oil seems in danger to break down and dollar is on the weekly buy signal. The opposite is also true. The general market was so bearish last month and now it is ready to break out.

Update: SPWR

Now up almost $20 in 8 days! More upside ahead.

Xiang Liu no longer a hero

Xiang Liu was a hero in China, he is the first Chinese man to win an Olympic track and field gold medal. Today he withdraw from the first round of qualifying due to leg injury. A regular athlete has right to be injured and to quit, not him. He is a star, he is a celebrity. He carries much more on his shoulder than any other Chinese athletes. At least he could walk that 110m, that is all I ask for. At least he could show some Olympic spirit, which doesn't include quitting. No more a hero, coward, I call him!

NASDAQ weekly

Notice the pink moving average, which is 30 week MA, about to reverse up. Positive. Also positive divergence, the bold blue lines, another positive.

Update: SPWR

I will sell the first half at $95-$100 area, hold the rest to $120! So far $15.7 in the pocket in 4 days!

Looking back

Remember my bottom call? It is here. That was exact bottom. Where are you, the reader left the comment without a name?

WYNN

It was added last night.

SPWR

I added SPWR couple of days ago, after market it is trading at $84.

ESRX

Added last week.

Troy, good pick!

In BIDU again.

Too bad, got stopped out earlier

Too bad!

Todai opens its first Mainland China branch

LA's seafood buffet restaurant opens the first branch in Beijing. Location is here. I am going to check it out tonight, see if worth of $37 a piece.

Update: it is better than the ones in the States.

Some thoughts for life (in Chinese)

I copied the following from "Trendscar" magazine. 王中磊说自由是最高级别的生活享受，如果一个人可以自由自在，又拥有完美的事业和家庭，那便是人生的天堂了。Amen for that.

Jim Cramer calling the bottom

Jim Cramer is calling July 15th the bottom. Although I don't like him most of times, I tend to agree with him this time.

IMCL

IMCL was acquired by BMY for $60. It is trading at $65 premarket. I think you can close it for almost $20 or 40% in 3 days!

ITT

ITT was recently added to my newsletter.

BIDU

BIDU was added to my newsletter recently.

Elder's new book

Currently I am reading Elder's new book "sell & sell short". Frankly, I think it is not as good as his previous works. He did not come up a sounding shorting method that I had expected. OK to read, it is from Elder.

One thing I like short selling

Shorting has one massive advantage over buying that is they tend to go down about twice as fast as they rise. This coincides one of my trading belief: make the most money in the shortest time frame. As the readers notice that my trading strategy mainly focused on long side, I think from now on I should pay more attention to the short side.

What do I do in a bad market?

1. Go read more trading books. Study the trading journal and see what went wrong.
2. Prepare a buy list that comes handy when the market gets better.

Don't ever give up easily, believe a better tomorrow is around the corner.

NASDAQ trouble again?

2250 area is the key, I don't want to see TSI crossed down again.

Unlucky

Too bad got shaken out yesterday.

NASDAQ bottom?

Bottom fianlly? Better to cover some shorts.

Update: SOHU

Target met with $12.5 profit.

Decline is not over yet

The market can't rally on a good news, it clearly says the decline is not over. Do not try to pick a bottom that is suicidal.

Ken Heebner talks

Bright future? Can't bet against him. Who is he?

Update: ISRG

More downside on ISRG, now $30 in the pocket.

NASDAQ weekly

Typical bear market behavior: breaks down, bounces to the breakdown pt, then resumes the down trend. Also TSI just reversed from the neutral line indicating plenty of downside on the weekly chart.

NYX

I think we should take some profit off the table today.

ISRG

ISRG has been featured in my newsletter for days, now almost $20 in the pocket.

Got a winner!

$2 million is the winning bid to lunch with Warren Buffet. I heard the winner is a Chinese hedge fund manager. Yahoo Finance now has the full story here.

Crude oil

Crude oil is about to break up again that coincides further break down of the dollar.

Strong dollar?

Our government said they support strong dollar policy? The chart says they lie.

WYNN

WYNN has been featured in the newsletter for days.

Update: RIMM

Escaped the massacre again.

SOHU

SOHU was recently added to my newsletter.

FLR

FLR was added last week.

Lunch with Buffet

The auction with Warren Buffet starts tonight. This is the 6th year. I did not know the winning bidder could bring up to 7 friends at the lunch. So that is $100,000 a person if calculated with last year's price. Not a bad investment. Definitely I would go if I have enough knowledge to communicate with him.

My dream

Before I dislike the economist as a title or a profession and I felt embarrassed to say I was majoring in economics, since at that time I thought it stood for stubbornness, old school and poor professors. After years in the trading business, I now have a totally different point of view.

As a short term trader, all I can foresee is hours ahead or days ahead maximum. So the profit is limited by the time. Once the price is beyond the time I could reasonably guess, I become uncertain and suspicious.

But the economist can forecast much further than that. I am talking about the best breed, like Jim Rogers, Warren Buffet etc. They see things years ahead. Jim Rogers has been bullish on basic material since years ago. Warren Buffet bought Petrochina when nobody wanted it and sold it at high.

That is power I want to pursue in the future. I wish I could be one of them, I could see what they see, do what they do. I dream to be called as an economist.

Now it looks like a good escape!

I escaped at $112, $15.4 above.

Update: RIMM

Up almost $12 in 4 days.

I remain short term bullish

The NASDAQ outperforms S&P right now with C is again breaking $20. I don't see much downside from here.

BKX

BKX is now near the low of 2002 on the weekly chart. It is due for a bounce. And you know my attitude towards the financial sector.

GS bouncing

GS is now up over $3. Covering shorts. We go higher.

Update: POT

POT is up over $32 since added to my newsletter!

A big leap forward

I just find out I never talked about trading diary on this website. It is THE MOST VALUABLE TOOL improving my trading skills. Many of the most important lessons in markets need to be learned and relearned. When we write about ourselves , we necessarily stand outside ourselves. At those times, we identifying with the mentor within us, not with the trader having difficulties. The trading diary is a means of communication from us as mentors to us as traders.

Do you know?

Do you know in the medical world, students participating in rotations covering each of the specialty field to experience them firsthand? After six weeks of pediatrics, six weeks of general surgery, six weeks of radiology, and six weeks of psychiatry, students begin to gain a sense for the kinds of medical practice that speak to their strengths and interests. Most of all, they learn which of the fields is fun. Students destined for surgery and emergency medicine gravitate toward active practice fields. Research physicians find their fulfillment in problem solving and the analytical process. Each group finds its own path through the developmental process.

Now imagine approaching trading as if it were medical education: trading baskets of stocks for 6 weeks, developing a trading system for precious metals futures over the next 6 weeks, and then spending 12 weeks building currency positions based on macro analysis.

And now you know what interests you most, what market and what time frame you feel most comfortable to trade in.

Practical? I think it is worthy to find your trading mate.

RIMM

I added RIMM last night.

Another miss

The notation was left on Monday, the low on Tuesday was $90.82. I did not expect AGU could just rally facing an ugly market. Oh, well.

Got shaken out

Too bad.

China's best economist

Xiuyun Han is the best economist in China to my knowledge. Run and get her latest insights on housing, stock market, currency and employment etc here.

Lakers rules!

Lakers all the way to the championship!

Update: POT

Now $11 that could be in your pocket too.

Update: MON

Now up almost $13 that could be yours too.

Update: BTU

Now up over $5.

POT

I added POT last night.

Update: MON

Now $8 in the pocket that could be in yours too.

Bad for Chinese people living in the States

Before you had the luxury not to invest, CD might be a good alternative. But now Renminbi just broke 7 and it is on the way to 6, 5, even 2, where Jim Rogers projects in the foreseeable future. With the speed like that, I don't see any directions other than that. If you have no plan to go back to China, no education plan for your kids, or no retirement plans, you can skip this. If any of the above occurs to you in the night, you are now FORCED to invest. You are now FORCED to beat the market.

I will skip the education and retirement plans here, since they are common sense to most people. I will show you how scary it is to Chinese people earning dollars when Renminbi appreciates to 2.

If you make $50,000 or Renminbi 350,000 a year, a regular wage in the States, you are still treated as a gold collar in China right now. This will change dramatically when a dollar can only get two yuan. Then you are making Renminbi 100,000 a year, which is just a little more than the wages of a masseuse at Liangzi, Beijing, who came directly from a Henan village, without much education.

Everybody knows the price of automobiles and housing in Beijing is high, what about groceries? Unfortunately I tossed away the last receipt which is over Renminbi 400 for a trip to a supermarket called Yichulianhua, I will definitely attach it next time.

I hope you get what I am saying. If you have money, buy Chinese asset; if not, make extra money by investing and then buy Chinese asset. I don't want you to be shy on your pocket when you go back to China next time, your Chinese relatives will look down on you. From where? America?

Update: MON

MON continues to climb.

BTU

BTU was added last night.