JDSU

JDSU is breaking today!

HTHT

HTHT is breaking out today!

FNSR

FNSR is breaking out today!

CRUS

CRUS is breaking out today!

C'mon!

The banking sector still lags, which may turn up some day. I just hope sooner than later.

Sectors about to break out!

I continue to like these three sectors, all about to break out!

LDSH

After being stopped out, it gave the buy trigger again and boom!

KKD

After featured in my newsletter for two days, it broke out today!

What a bull market!

The market shrugged off the bad economic number and closed at high. No matter how the bears translate or predict it, this is bullish. I know the sentiment is getting more bullish everyday, but it is normal since we are in an up trend and more and more people realize it. I still see some small investors try to pick the top, though less than the last week, that tells me the sentiment is not at extreme yet.

FSYS looks great too

FSYS is on the way to hit my target as well.

JASO almost hit my target

JASO looks very strong.

NDX quickly approaching the resistance

NDX has led this rally, now it will be the first to challenge the April high.

Semi came back to life!

Once the semiconductor comes back to life, the tech is alive!

More sectors turning up

The retail and the biotech have been the leading sectors and they continue to be. Now the transport and the homebuilder sector are about to break up.

Weekly summery

I had been in sync with market until Friday, when the bulls came back with vengeance. Earlier this week I turned less bullish after less stocks came up to my scan and both the bank and the semiconductor indexes underperformed. I thought we were due for some sort of pullback and I bought a large short position of SMH to hedge my longs. Fortunately the short position was stopped out with a little loss Thursday, but my long positions are under invested at the start of today. I quickly added some exposures as the market opened, though at the end of day I am still not fully margined. Here are some thoughts for the next week.

Positives:

1. The market has been strong and the individual stocks have performed very well, just like a bull market.
2. More sectors are turning up and about to break up.
3. The semiconductor sector comes back ! Usually a good sign!

Neutrals:

1. The market and the stocks have come up quickly without any pause. Now some of them are near the heavy resistance.
2. The sentiment has moved to more bullish side, thought it may need more extreme bullish sentiment to reverse the trend.

Negatives:

1. The bank has not participated in this rally.

That is all the negative factors I can come up with. I didn't count the fundamental factors that takes much longer time to have effect.

The old problems still here

The semiconductor is clearly stalled at the resistance and the bank faces the danger of a failed breakout, both a warning sign to the bulls.

Remember what I said majority of traders were short term bearish over the weekend? Today they got squeezed. Today it feels like the shorts threw their towels and covered their positions. With the Fed speaking tomorrow and market overbought, I think now we are due for some pullback.

Weekend homework

A week has passed since we broke out, now the question is how high we can go and how long the rally can carry on. Once again I have no idea, the reasons as follows:

Positives:

1. Many stocks broke out and have held up well.

2. The market has been very strong and has not given much opportunities for people to get on board. Usually a sign of the start of a lasting bull trend.

3. Not many people believe in this breakout. I never saw so many bloggers or traders have one and only one conclusion: breakout is short-lived and we are going to pull back very soon. Trust me, go to any other trading sites, the conclusion is same and I find it very interesting, since the market always fools the most people.

4. The weekly chart of NDX has formed a solid bottom and broke out.

Negatives:

1. The bank and the semiconductor index still lag this rally.

2. China stock market has stalled.

In conclusion, I thought we would have little upside room last weekend, just as 99% of traders do, but right now I see a chance that we will continue to climb because the market always surprises most of us.

New look

I am trying a new template for my blog, want to make it fresher. Feel it?

A daytrade example

Why I take profit at same day I entered? The profit shows up too big and too quick and the general market condition is not a strong trend, like today. I don't want to take further risk. Now I use daily chart to find my candidates that have to about to break out. Then I use 5 min chart to get in and out. I got in JOBS at $30.44, out at $31.8.

Sorry if this does not sound a typical day trade, but it fits my belief and strategy. Hope you find yours too.

Biggest winner so far!

Up 40% since the entry!

Update: PLCE

PLCE met the target, nearly 9% in 7 trading days.

Break out!

Today the market break out! Just did not expect so soon. Now we have to hold the gain, otherwise it would be a bull trap that is very unfriendly. The bank sector also breaks out, bullish so far.

We are still resting

Now a week has passed, the market is still rest just under the resistance. Can we break out? I still don't know. But here are some positives and negatives for you to think over, you may be a better judge.

First the positives, as usual.

1. More stocks came around and formed a breakout pattern, either cup and handle or bull flag.

2. The already broke out stocks have kept the gain very well, namely as AKAM, FFIV, CMG, VMW, NFLX etc.

3. The recent economic numbers are much better than expectations.

4. China's stock market bounced back after a brief decline.

The negatives:

1. The sentiment has flipped to bullish too fast. The AAII bullish number has grown to 44%.

2. High CPCI number indicates big boys are betting upside is limited. I borrowed the chart from Cobra and attached down below.

Now the neutral factors:

1. The bank sector has been lagging, but now came around a bit. The semiconductor sector has just disappeared entirely in this recently, but the good news is Taiwan is about to break up, which is the manufacturing base of most of semiconductor companies.

My best guess is maybe we rally a little further, but upside is limited since the sentiment and the lack of leadership from the bank and the technology. What do you think?

Concern

China stock market has been down for two days, which could put some selling pressure on US market. Just a head up.

Stopped out of gold

Gold was stopped out with a loss. I will revisit them once the gold returns to its resistance.

The leading sectors just resting

The leading sectors are taking couple of days off that is normal and nothing to be worried about.

Banks are catching up

If the bank sector could break this trend line, it would be super bullish for this market. Bottom line is, as long as banks stop going down, the bull market is alive.

Rally is upon us

More stocks are breaking out or ready to break out; leaders like CMG, VMW, FFIV, AKAM, PCLN etc held well yesterday facing profit taking; China stock market is strong; our weak bank sector is catching up, all signal we will see more upside from here.

It is moving, finally!

RDWR is finally moving!

Update: SOL

SOL reached the price target today, 18% in 6 days!

Update: SOLF

I closed SOLF as well, 11% in 4 days!

Update:SPRD

I also closed SPRD, 23% in 5 days, not too bad.

Update: PNRA

I closed the position on Friday. Easy money has been made.

Pour a little cold water to bulls

I borrow a chart from http://slopeofhope.com/. What it tells me is unless we are breaking above the area with red arrows, it is a bear market rally. As a trader, we have to keep it in mind. Don't let the optimism fool you.

The following sectors look well

They are the leading sectors.