EZPW

EZPW broke out the downtrend, my target is its old high at $40.

CELG

CELG broke out its ascending triangle, my target is $50+ on this one.

Decline

Today's weakness is disappointing, but not unexpected due to the slow volume yesterday. The market is still trying to build the bottom, though this process is painful. More patience is all we need.

SMDI

I recommended SMDI two days ago, it has acted well and is on the way to $13 plus.

CTRP

CTRP finally breaks out today. It was featured in my newsletter last night.

Volume

I like this rally and I am happy to be a bull, but the volume concerns me. Hopefully it will kick in in the last hour.

GOOG

I suggested GOOG at $391 this morning.

CME

I suggested CME at $461 area this morning.

Judgment day

Today is very important to the bulls. It validates that we have seen the low. More volume would be even better.

Update: BRLI

BRLI hits my price target too today.

Update: AVID

AVID hits my target today.

BRLI

I expect to close the position this week.

Update: LEND

LEND continues sliding.

American soccer

American soccer team put on a hell of fight today against the powerhouse Italy. With only 9 players, they tied the game. Nobody expected something big out of American team after they lost the last game to Czech. Today they showed the world what the American spirit is, hat off to them.

Mad Money

If you have not checked out the poll on Jim Cramer's "Mad Money", please go vote it now. The result so far looks terrible towards to Mr Cramer. I think this show will lead a disaster to his reputation. He should have known this better than me that stock market does not walk the way of his call, which is simply based on some fundamental data and quick market analysis. A 30 second phone call can make you money? Then I can cure cancer in that time. He makes investing look so easy. Sorry, the market does not work that way.

Away from my trading desk

Yesterday I was out of desk, missed the grand rally. Luckily most of my shorts were covered right at my target, the rest were with tight stops. Please go check "the winning trade" and "losing trade" to the right of this page.

Update: KOSP

KOSP hits my target too.

Update: CENX

CENX hits my target today.

Update: AVID

AVID continues its slide.

Update: ESRX

ESRX continues its slide.

Brazil won

Sorry for the lack of the post. My favorite soccer team Brazil is on today and they handily beat Croatia by 1:0. Even though I am not a Brazilian, but as a soccer fan, I will always be a Brazilian until the sucking Chinese team can get on the world stage.

World Cup

The U.S. team is on right now vs. Czech. Though I don't like our president Bush, I was still touched by his phone call to the coach. I do think this sport needs more support and attention from the nation. On that end, our president at least has done something.

AVID

AVID finally breaks down, I featured it as a short in my newsletter several times. Even though I think the market's low is in, AVID seems to have more downside room.

Sometimes I am earlier

I shorted FMCN at the red arrow at $60.7 area, got stopped out around $64, but it broke down hard yesterday. Timing, timing, timing.

Market and World Cup

Blogger.com has not been stable recently, which prevents me from posting it regularly. It seems that I nailed the low yesterday, but the market bottom needs time to build, not one day or two. From today to July 9th, I probably will post less, since WORLD CUP. Oh, yeah, baby. Once every four years. That reminds me one thing: US broadcasting sucks, they don't even broadcast the opening ceremony live. Maybe I stretch a little bit, but I wanna get this out of my chest: C'mon, be a world citizen, stop being self centered!

Covering

This is a nasty selloff, but i think enough is enough, I am calling to cover shorts here.

CENX

CENX broke down today, heading down to $35 area.

Blogger.com

Blogger.com was shut down today due to technical problems. It has not been stable recently.

New poll

New poll is coming. This time is about Jim Cramer's Mad Money. I like him, but this show? Lets' say it is a show. For the coming World Cup, I ordered back my English cable package. And I watched Mad Money for a second, when my girlfriend was beside me. She asked who the hell this guy is? how come he speaks like that? Is the show always this noisy? Some of her points, I kinda agree.

Poll result

Even though not many readers voted the poll to the right, I see less than 50% investors made money from mutual funds in the last three year, which has been a steady up trend. This is sad. I learned this lesson in the 90's before I jumped into the stock market. Because my mutual funds had an average return in a good market, but they dropped like a rock, along with the rest of the market in a bad environment. So what is the purpose of hiring a professional to do this job? I could either invest myself or just buy an ETF. Certainly at that time, there was no ETF available.

Book recommendation on Amazon

I just submitted a book review of "Entries & Exits" by Alexander Elder to Amazon, I will post the link here when it is approved.

An old email

The following is a portion from an email I replied to a member on April 14th. Looking back, I can say my works saw it coming.

2 Right now the market is uncertain, the candidates from both scans come in much less than a strong market. During a strong market, I had suggested around 30 stocks in one newsletter. Now due to the market condition, the breakout plays have much less success rate. I have to filter out most of them, since from my experience they will not work in a bad environment. I filter them out in order to avoid whipsaws, for myself and for you guys.

4 Market has rhythm. Professional traders know when to be more aggressive, when to be more selective and trade less. Now it is time to be more sit back. More picks in a bad market only means more whipsaw, more loss.

Bottom?

Is GOOG bottoming? Is it regaining the leadership that is lost earlier this year? Most of investors did not pay attention to this leading stock back then. When GOOG broke down hard in February, it was a major warning sign to the bulls. Now it is building a bottom while the NASDAQ is still falling. I think once again GOOG is telling us something and we should listen to it. At least I am listening to it.

BIDU

I have been bullish on BIDU for some times. The green arrow was my buy pt. Today it is breaking out its consolidation area.

ESRX

After a week's consolidation, ESRX finally cracks today. The red arrow was my short pt.

LEND

I suggested shorting it in last night's newsletter.

New Fed = black crow

This new Federal Reserve Chairman is a black crow. Every time he opens up his *** mouth, the market gets trashed. Can he just keep it shut?

Lack of volume

Although we have a fearful, large ranged decline, it is on lighter volume. I am cutting some of my longs, CELG is one of them.

Access

I have a hard time to access Blogger.com this morning, I will do an update this afternoon.

Where I am standing now

There are lots of nervous investors out there, who do not trust this rally. Honestly I am one of them. But as long as I can find stocks breaking out and indices are bouncing, I am buying this market with a quick finger. I will go back to short again as soon as this rebound is failing.

Morning

So far we are having a weak start, but my gut is with the bullish side. Time is still early, we will see.

Job report

I love this rally, but can I remind the bulls that we will have the job report due tomorrow morning. If it is not satisfying the market, we will go back to the dull mode again. So don't over bet right now.

PSMT

Another long candidate I suggested in the chat room.

SHLD

I listed SHLD as a buy candidate in my newsletter and once again mentioned it in the chat room.

ASEI

Our former high flyer ASEI comes back to earth. I think it may go test the low 50s in the near future.

The book I am reading and love it

This is another great book from Dr Alexander Elder. I borrowed it from a fellow trader yesterday and immediately fell in love with it. I was excited and could not go to sleep after a few pages. That is how good this book is.

Retesting the low?

I thought we might retest the low, but did not think this soon. For some indices, this is not a retest, it is a resumed decline. I am talking about the Semi, the Networking, even the Banks.

Update: SNDK

I think SNDK is on the way to $55 or even lower.

Biotech weekly chart

I would focus my shorting on the Biotech index, because it is below 30 weekly moving average, more importantly the pink average is turning down, which is very bearish long term. Certainly it can rally back above 703 area to prevent a bear market, but if you want to see a new high, it probably won't happen until summer 07. Notice the Biotech almost used one year to consolidate from 04 low to 05 breakout pt.

Semi weekly chart

Samething for the Semiconductor index. If it can rally back above 505 area, our long term bull market remains. Notice that the pink 30 weekly moving average is still climbing.

NASDAQ weekly chart

The NASDAQ is just sitting above the lower uptrend trendline. If we can rally back above the pink 30 weeek moving average, which is quite possible, the bull market would be still alive.

LTXX

I suggested it yesterday in the chat room, one of few semi leaders.

Update: PCLN

Closed some PCLN at $32 for a quick profit. Can't be greedy in this market.

Update: PCLN

Rally out of the congestion. I have been recommended it since the green arrow.

Turn

I pointed out that the market was going to be deeply oversold this week, and I expected a strong bounce because of that. So far all we have got were some weak intraday bounces. This tells me that the bottom has not been reached yet.

SNDK

It has been featured in my newsletter as a short for days. One of my favorite.

NTRI

Recommended it as a short at $64.5 just a moment ago.

Retreat

The market quickly retreats to the low of the day, typical bear market behavior. Is this it? Our expected relieve rally? So far it sure does not look optimistic.

KOSP

I have listed it as a short in the newsletter for couple of days.

Shorting

Some readers asked before how come I did not recommending shorting. I think now my recent trades answered their amateur questions. Always trade with the trend, my friends. And I think the money will be made on the short side this summer.

Update: SIRF

Covering some SIRF, next target $25 area.

Covering NDAQ

NDAQ reaches my target $30 area, cover it for a $10 gain.

Member's pick: NEU

Andy recommended shorting it last Friday. Good job.

Bounce!

Here we go, we are having THE bounce!

Timing the turn

Are we hitting the bottom yet? When are we gonna rebound? I received emails asking me these types of questions. I think we are going to see the bounce soon, today or early next week. The question is if the bounce is worth of playing. I think the bounce is an opportunity to unload any long positions if traders still have it and to prepare the short list for the next round of decline.
If the Fed does not cut the interest rate soon, I think we are heading to 2050 on the NASDAQ.

EZPW

Breaking down hard today, it has been on my newsletter since this Wednesday.

Update: MYOG

Almost $7 profit since I recommended shorting it on April 10th.

Weak bounce

So far the bounce has been pretty weak, seemingly no buyers are interested. However, I think we will continue to walk higher, maybe slowly.

Update: NDAQ

Almost $8 from my short pt since April 24th.

Target

The NASDAQ now is sitting on the support, which is also my short term target, I am covering some shorts, like FFIV, SNDK. I think it is time to take profit on the short positions, at least half.

Andy, I am proud of you.

Congratulations to Andy, a member of my platinum service who achieved 8% plus return this month.

FFIV

I suggested shorting FFIV this morning in the chat room. It looks it has resumed its downtrend, heading to $50 area.

Not oversold yet

My comment has not changed much from yesterday, except that we are on the way to become oversold. I expect when the NASDAQ reaches 2200 area, we may be at the oversold territory and the time frame will be next week.

Reserving cash

Sometimes no trading is a way to beat the market, now it seems one of those times. I decrease my positions and trading dramatically recently, since I really don't see a bottom around the corner. Today's close is kind of strong, but it does not mean anything to me yet.

Morning

The Bank is trying to stabilize here, the Biotech is building a mini double bottom, but they can't trip me into buying this market.

Bearish

I think we will cut through the lower blue line easily next week, then we may find some support around 2000 area. This is a weekly chart, and you can tell we are far from oversold. Actually the decline just starts.

I am back

The market has acted OK while I am way, until yesterday. It was ugly, except the Energy, the Basic material and the Bank, all other sectors now in sell signal. And we are far from oversold, I think the sideline is where we should be.

Update: PCLN

Sold it before the close at $29.4. Now see you all next week, I am off to Italy!

PCLN

I wrote in my newsletter that buying any weakness towards $26. This morning's brief pullback gave us the opportunity to get in around $26.4.

NTGR

I suggested it in the chat room yesterday and listed it in the newsletter too.

Update: LMNX

I recommended it at $15.7 in the chat room yesterday. This one will go to $18+ easily.

Pick for the next week

I expect it to go back to its old high, then on the way to $8.

Update: LRCX

LRCX continues to be leader in the Semi land, now up $7 since my buy pt.

TZOO daytrade

I suggested TZOO at $39.4 this morning, sold it at $41.4, a nice daytrade.
This is a 15min intraday chart.

ITU

Another one I suggested in the chat room yesterday.

HBC

I recommended it in the chat room yesterday.

Market

We are having a mini rally at this moment, but the NASDAQ up 0.07%, the RUSSELL 2000 up 0.14%, so pathetic. The slide is not over.

Update: MYOG

MYOG is sick too.

NDAQ

NDAQ continues to slide.

Vacation time

I am going to take a vacation from May 5th to 11th. This market is sick, which is hard to make money for a momentum trader, like myself. It will probably come back to life again in the late summer. If you have time, I suggest you to do the same thing.