I would focus my shorting on the Biotech index, because it is below 30 weekly moving average, more importantly the pink average is turning down, which is very bearish long term. Certainly it can rally back above 703 area to prevent a bear market, but if you want to see a new high, it probably won't happen until summer 07. Notice the Biotech almost used one year to consolidate from 04 low to 05 breakout pt.
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