Good question. Honestly I don't know. Here are some thoughts about the recent rally off the low. First, the positives, as always.
1. The economic number is much better than the expectation. I think the double dip scenario is already priced in and now better numbers have put a nice cushion underneath.
2. Many stocks broke out.
3. The weekly charts on the major indices look much healthier than the last week.
1. Many stocks approached the resistance quickly, so do the major indices.
2. The semiconductor and the bank sector are lagging, which is not good.
And the neutral factor is the sentiment, which happened to be a major contributor to the recent rally. I am not sure how many investors have turned bullish after this rally and we will find out soon. If not many believe in this rally, it would give another vote to the positives and we may have a better chance to break out of this huge trading range.
Now it seems we will go up to the upper band of the range and come back to wait and see if the economy is really improving. So I would still be optimistic, but cautiously.