Saturday, September 12, 2009
Ignorance is a bliss
First I have to admit I made a mistake, I tried to pick the turn again. I should not start shorting the market before the trend changes that is 30 week moving average starts to point down. Now once again it is proved that we are still in a monster bull market that has rallied over 54% within 6 months! I have been firmly believing that we are in a long term bear market, because the economy is in a bad shape and this time the root is bad, the Americans have to change their life style. Besides, the technical picture did not support a sustained rally: no double bottom or triple bottom. So from the beginning, in the bottom of my heart I was thinking and projecting the rally is just temporary and doomed to fail some day. I still believe that, but this belief makes this year's trading particularly difficult. I have to trade from the long side while holding a chuck of shorting positions to hedge. And as long as the market keeps rallying, the struggle inside my head gets more intense and at some point my belief is going to shake. Maybe this time is different? Ignorance is a bliss. It is so fit in this situation. If I am a rookie, I could be much happier this year.