Semiconductors

The semiconductor index is close to breakdown, which often leads the Nasdaq.

Past trades for the October, 2005

bot desc @ 7.74, sold @ 8.75, net 13%
bot redf @ 15.18, sold @ 15.9, net 5%
bot redf @ 15.18, sold @ 17.53, net 15%
bot redf @ 15.18, sold @ 17.9, net 18%
bot jcom @ 40.78, sold @ 39.53, net (3%)
bot lm @ 109.68, sold @ 108.91, net (1%)
bot uthr @ 71.07, sold @ 70.47, net (1%)
bot cmed @ 22.5, sold @ 23.9, net 6%
bot cmed @ 23.51, sold @ 24.8, net 5%
bot smsc @ 30.08, sold @ 29.6, net (2%)
bot iiji @ 10.14, sold @ 10.15, net 0%
bot cnvr @ 14.5, sold @ 14.19, net (2%)
bot mgn @ 6.85, sold @ 6.6, net (4%)
bot gold @ 16.1, sold @ 15.5, net (4%)
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short goog @ 311.07, cover @ 303.18, net 3%
short shld @ 118.96, cover @ 116.2, net 2%
short aapl @ 50.61, cover @ 47.99, net 5%
short vlo @ 107.46, cover @ 100.1, net 7%
short aapl @ 49.21, cover @ 50.53, net (3%)
bot rbak @ 10.1, sold @ 10.1, net 0%
bot amln @ 34.31, sold @ 35.9, net 5%
bot lrcx @ 32.17, sold @ 33.73, net 5%
bot amln @ 35.4, sold @ 36.15, net 2%
bot cme @ 290.55, sold @ 310, net 7%
bot bcrx @ 15.35, sold @ 16.8, net 9%
bot bcrx @ 15.32, sold @ 14.9, net (3%)
bot bcrx @ 15.3, sold @ 16.8, net 10%
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bot medi @ 32.57, sold @ 32.61, net 0%
bot crdn @ 37.16, sold @ 38.01, net 2%
bot ngas @ 12.25, sold @ 13, net 6%
bot rhat @ 21.21, sold @ 20.985, net (1%)
bot lwsn @ 7.21, sold @ 7.42, net 3%
bot bbbb @ 25.15, sold @ 26.46, net 5%
bot tomo @ 17.1, sold @ 19.155, net 12%
bot rhat @ 21.5, sold @ 21.25, net (1%)
bot bbbb @ 26.65, sold @ 27.04, net 1%
bot teva @ 34.7, sold @ 35.01, net 1%
bot leap @ 34.55, sold @ 34.24, net (1%)
bot bcrx @ 15.42, sold @ 15.35, net (0%)
bot ctxs @ 26.29, sold @ 25.97, net (1%)
bot holx @ 54.75, sold @ 53.94, net (1%)
bot ntrs @ 51.76, sold @ 52.22, net 1%
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bot jcom @ 40.5, sold @ 43.8, net 8%
bot lrcx @ 33.83, sold @ 34.2, net 1%
bot arba @ 7.09, sold @ 7.12, net 0%
bot arba @ 7.09, sold @ 6.9, net (3%)
bot ctxs @ 26.47, sold @ 26.54, net 0%
bot vclk @ 16.95, sold @ 17.19, net 1%
bot vign @ 16.85, sold @ 17.17, net 2%
bot redf @ 18.5, sold @ 19.49, net 5%
bot akam @ 17.45, sold @ 17.16, net (2%)
bot cnqr @ 13.58, sold @ 13.35, net (2%)
bot sbac @ 16.05, sold @ 15.52, net (3%)
bot anst @ 30.28, sold @ 30.89, net 2%
bot ntri @ 29.2, sold @ 30.81, net 6%
bot amln @ 36.93, sold @ 37.51, net 2%
bot issx @ 25.33, sold @ 24.1, net (5%)
bot wbsn @ 57.22, sold @ 58.4, net 2%
bot ffiv @ 49.35, sold @ 51.32, net 4%
bot crdn @ 39.31, sold @ 41.47, net 5%
bot actg @ 6.47, sold @ 6.28, net (3%)
bot dgin @ 29.04, sold @ 29.2, net 0%
bot bcrx @ 16.04, sold @ 15, net (6%)

Bounce

The market is trying to bounce. If you still have open long positions, I would suggest get out using this rally. I don't think the decline has finished yet.

Selloff

The market continues its selloff this morning. Most of stocks I watch are in red. I am surprised to see GOOG and CME holding so well. The financials are holding as well. I think we might have a chance to reverse the decline.

Weakness

The market extends yesterday's weakness. If we close like right now, I would get sell signals across the board, which would force me back on the sideline.

What is swing trading

According to Philip Gotthelf, who has a very well written article about daytrading in the current issue of SFO, swing trading "involves identifying swing points that usually are based on a momentum-exhaustion theory". He outlines a stock movement containing five phases: ignition, acceleration, deceleration, consolidation, and reversing.

For me, I see consolidation, acceleration, consolidation again, and reversing. Regardless the number of phases, as a swing trader, all I need to do is to identify the consolidation (the longer, the better), to jump on the board when it is about to accelerate to the upside, to jump off the train when it is about to consolidate its recent gain.

I am a swing trader. Are you? If you want to become a trader, you have to find out what type of trader you are or you want to be. The sooner, the better. There is no good or bad. Just find one that fits your personality best. Like music, some people love classical, some people prefer heavy metal; one is not superior than the other.

Me? Intraday trading requires me to be attached to the monitor for too long; long term investing needs me to study too much fundamental information that I can't find any truth within the data. So I stick to my favorite: swing trading.

Disappointment

I am a little disappointed that we can not have a strong followthrough since we have a weaker energy price today. Maybe we are not ready yet, we need more time. The key is still on financials, which fall to the low quickly.

Update: Crude oil

Crude oil looks like breaking down, which will be super bullish for the equity market.

Update: CMED

I brought it up over MSN yesterday at the green arrow, I think it is time to take some profit.

TEVA

I recommended it yesterday. The green arrow was my buy point.

IIJI

I recommended it two days ago at the green arrow.

Financials

I am watching the banking index closely. If it can go above 97.5, I think it is safe to say long heavily in the market.

Refund policy

1. I offer a free two-week trial for the first time subscribers.

2. Please think very carefully BEFORE pressing the PAYPAL button, absolutely NO REFUND of the current subscription;

3. But I will definitely stop billing you the next cycle, if you want to cancel the service.

4. After you cancel the service, you will not be able to receive the remaining issues. So please cancel it near the end of billing cycle.

Update: DESC

I am taking profit on DESC.

BRLI

It was featured in my newsletter last night. Breaking out today.

HAWK

HAWK is still strong after the breakout.

Waiting for the financial

The financial is still building base while others are trying hard to take off. Look at semiconductors and biotechs. As soon as the financial bounces its support, I think the Nasdaq will break out to the upside. The leading sectors will be semiconductors, biotechs and internet.

CMED

I just recommeded it this morning at $22.6 over MSN.

NTRI

It was my Friday's recommendation over MSN.

September trading record

I just updated my September trading record. I have to admit that I did not get entirely away from the market. Oh well, maybe for couple of hours. The reason? Because the individual stocks kept breaking out while the major indices were still in bad shape. I exchanged my frustration with the subscribers and said that with so many breakout to the upside, the market might have hard time to break down. So I jumped in with very tight stop and caught two big winners: REDF and AMLN. MNTA could do better, sold half at the top of the range, stop loss the rest as it went back to the breakingout point.